Study: Fixed WiMax fails to inspire

August 17, 2005

WiMax equipment is "off to a good start" according to a market research firm, but the fixed version looks increasingly lackluster compared with the subsequent mobile version.

Around US$16.4 million of pre-WiMax equipment was sold in 2004, and that is expected to grow to US$124.5 million in 2005, according to Infonetics Research's report, WiMax and Outdoor Mesh Equipment.

However, Motorola joined the list of vendors who are bypassing the current version of WiMax and waiting for the mobile version 802.16e, which won't be deployed till 2007. "Motorola is not a very significant player in fixed wireless," said Richard Webb, Infonetics' wireless analyst.

The reason is that WiMax is not going to revolutionize fixed wireless -- it is just a modification to an existing market for proprietary equipment, according to Infonetics, and will be used for similar purposes, such as wireless backhaul. The company is predicting around US$600 million of business for fixed WiMax in 2009. "That's not a heck of a lot bigger than the proprietary fixed wireless market," said Webb.

This market will be dominated by existing proprietary providers who are migrating towards WiMax, said Webb. "Alvarion has 60 percent of the pre-WiMax market, and the rest is small potatoes." In this situation, companies focussed on mobility, such as Nokia and Motorola, have abandoned fixed WiMax to focus on the mobile version, 802.16e. Others, such as Lucent and Siemens, have decided to resell Alvarion: "They have a solution, and it's not going to be a huge market."