WiMax Reports Archives
ABI Research Tracks US Mobile WiMAX Market as it Moves from Uncertain to Vibrant
July 16, 2007
Just a little over a year ago, most people thought the United States would only see deployments of fixed WiMAX in rural areas with no DSL or cable modem service. During the summer of 2006, however, those who did not see the bigger picture got a reality-check. In July, Clearwire made a firm commitment to shift its proprietary network to mobile WiMAX, receiving investments from Intel and Motorola. Shortly afterwards, Sprint Nextel announced its plans to deploy mobile WiMAX to make use of its extensive 2.5 GHz spectrum, becoming the first major mobile operator to commit to WiMAX.
"Today we are watching major strategic alliances, partnerships, and mergers starting to take place," says ABI Research principal analyst Philip Solis. "DirecTV and EchoStar announced a partnership with Clearwire, allowing Clearwire to bundle broadcast video and – when its network is deployed – provide the DBS companies with a fast, low-latency pipe into the home."
Sprint and Clearwire will at least form a roaming arrangement, if not actually merge in some form. NextWave also has a lot of WiMAX-friendly spectrum, and its NextWave Broadband subsidiary will be selling mobile WiMAX chipsets, helping to enable more WiMAX devices faster, thus increasing the value of the spectrum it holds. In addition, there are many wireless ISPs looking to deploy mobile WiMAX. Horizon Wi-Com, for example, holds 2.3 GHz spectrum that it acquired from Verizon across much of the Northeast.
These market trends and more are discussed in a new ABI Research Brief, "Mobile WiMAX in the United States", which provides detailed analysis of these service providers’ past and present efforts, and future directions. It is included in ABI Research’s Mobile Broadband Research Service, which also contains other Research Briefs, full-length Research Reports, Market Data, ABI Insights and analyst inquiry support.
WiMAX market big enough for large and small players
May 30, 2007
New research shows that the early entrants into the WiMAX market—firms like Alavarion, Aperto, Redline and Airspan—will be able to profit from their jump into an unproven industry, and will not be swallowed up by larger but slower WiMAX players like Motorola Inc. and Nokia Siemens Networks.
"While the early pioneers of WiMAX should lose their market share dominance over the next couple of years, they should continue to grow their revenues, benefiting from the overall growth of the market. These vendors continue to win larger contracts with higher profile service providers," said Daryl Schoolar, an In-Stat analyst.
According to a new study by market-research firm In-Stat, smaller WiMAX competitors still command a majority of the world’s WiMAX market—which, according to In-Stat, comprises around 213,300 subscribers worldwide. And although that market control will eventually slip to larger equipment suppliers, companies like Alavarion, Aperto, Redline, and Airspan will be able to reap their fair share of WiMAX network contracts in the future.
Though still much in its infancy, WiMAX technology has gained a large amount of interest due to its support for high data speeds, and its positioning as a potential competitor to 3G cellular networks.
The WiMAX market in the Untied States gained a major boost when Sprint Nextel Corp. announced plans to build out WiMAX networks in many major cities. The carrier so far has signed equipment-supplier deals with the likes of Motorola and Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.
Strategy Analytics WiMAX Operator Assessment
March 29, 2007
The Strategy Analytics Broadband Network Strategies analysis of WiMAX providers Clearwire and Towerstream suggests that their recent public offerings—rare among US wireless broadband service providers—are a necessary, but insufficient, step toward market success. The report, "WiMAX Service Providers Go Public: Ready for Prime Time or Looking for a Greater Fool?" notes that both the $600 million Clearwire IPO, and the much smaller $15 million, Towerstream offering, provide much needed expansion capital, yet both companies face extremely challenging business environments.
"The 1990's proved that going public doesn’t necessarily mean you have a great business plan," notes Tom Elliott, Vice President of Applied Analytics and author of the report. "It just means you’ve got someone else's money to back it." He continues, "Clearwire, which primarily serves residential customers, and Towerstream, which focuses on small and medium enterprises, are in very different businesses, but each faces stiff competition both from established access providers and from potential new offerings, such as Sprint Nextel's WiMAX network."
Clearwire has recently expanded into major US markets, after starting out in smaller cities. "The home broadband competition in major metropolitan areas between cable operators and telcos is fierce," says David Mercer, Vice President of the Digital Consumer practice. "Clearwire is going to have to fight to grow its customer base." Towerstream has announced a plan to add two cities a year to its current base of eight, which the report cautions may present a difficult management challenge for a small firm.
Case Study: Hopling Technologies Enhances Metro Mesh
February 16, 2007
Hopling Technologies was created in 2003 by seasoned executives in the Telecom industry, with a vision to become the global leader in wireless mesh network solutions. Headquartered in the Netherlands, Hopling Technologies is thriving in an environment which is a hotbed of networked applications, next-generation Internet and ranked third in global broadband penetration by the ITU .
This marketing driven R&D-centric company has grown rapidly, by following the philosophy that its customers are looking for a solutions partner with a deep understanding of wireless broadband mobility solutions and the practical expertise to optimize their deployment.
Hopling specializes in wireless mesh routing solutions which include indoor and outdoor mesh routers, WiFi and WiMAX access points, gateways, multi-client bridges and a suite of network management solutions all running on Linux.
Hopling Technologies' metropolitan solutions are self-configuring, centrally managed and controlled. Hopling’s wireless mesh multi-hop routing design is based on its HopWARE Mesh Architecture (HMA), which incorporates the sophisticated Hopling Mesh Protocol (HMP) and the unique Hopling Discovery Protocol (HDP) for the 900MHz, 2.4GHZ, 2.5-2.6GHz, 3.3-3.5GHz, 4.9GHz and 5GHz bands. These protocols enable automatic coverage for seamless metropolitan and event-based networks, leveraging the advantages of WiFi such as true mobility, high throughput, and ubiquitous connectivity of client devices.
The Hopling Discovery Protocol (HDP) is a means for its range of products to exchange information, thus enabling a device to configure itself for optimal communication with a neighboring Hopling product.
Another major advantage of the employed "mesh" wireless solution over today's traditional implementations is that the different nodes communicate with each other. The mesh network reconfigures itself when a node is installed or removed. Its mesh routing and hotspot networks provide an advantage over the traditional point-to-point links, in that each node added to the mesh enhances the network as a whole.
Every indoor and outdoor node is capable of relaying traffic coming from any of its neighbor's nodes. By simply adding another node, the range of the wireless mesh network is extended, creating a highly reliable, seamless and ever-increasing broadband network footprint.
These networks offer bandwidth control, roaming, automatic configuration, automatic channel selection, push content functionality, universal access methods, radius services and additional access security. With the self-healing mesh routing algorithms the network has no single point of failure, ensuring a reliable wireless roaming- and VoIP-enabled connection for your customers.
The company’s flexible and reliable solutions are deployed for video surveillance, municipal private networks, VoIP, mobile Wi-Fi broadband solutions, wireless LANs, last-mile wireless access connectivity, mesh backhaul/metropolitan area networks and ad hoc/event-based solutions.
Hopling Technologies’ latest solution set is the recently launched HopMAX product portfolio, which puts the company on the road to fulfilling the potential of new generation WiMAX end-to-end solutions.
To achieve rapid time-to-market and the engineering flexibility it requires, Hopling worked with Fujitsu Microelectronics and its WiMAX SoC as the silicon foundation for its HopMAX base stations, micro base stations and high-end subscriber units. The Fujitsu SoC is also used for Hopling Technologies’ mesh hybrid node system, called the Xnet Raptor-II.
Its first WiMAX products based on IEEE 802.16-2004, the plug & play Linux-based subscriber stations (HopMAX™ 1600 and HopMAX™ 2600) and a mesh-based WiMAX-backbone solution (Xnet Raptor-II hybrid node) will become commercially available in early 2007.The Hopling Mesh Protocol (HMP) will be added as a layer on top of the IEEE 802.16 standard used by the HopMAX™ products.
Hopling also plans to produce a micro base station (HopMAX™ 4600) and base station (HopMAX™ 6600) based on Fujitsu’s upcoming mobile WiMAX SoC. These IEEE 802.16e base station systems, micro base stations and high-end subscriber stations will become commercially available in 2008. WiMAX Forum lab certification and limited production shipments for these systems will start in the second quarter of 2008. HopWARE Mesh Architecture (HMA) will be added later as a layer on top of the IEEE 802.16 standard used by the HopMAX™ products.
Hopling Technologies is an active member of the WiMAX Forum envisioning the next wave of wireless access -personal broadband- based on the IEEE 802.16 standards.
Hopling Technologies has deployed systems for more than 30 service providers in seven countries. Among its prominent customers are the KPN, the national operator in the Netherlands, the National Dutch Rail Authority, which operates 5GHz wireless mesh at 20 rail stations and hotspot coverage at 50 more rail stations, The Cloud in Amsterdam (formerly known as Hotspot Amsterdam) and WebNet CWN (operating wireless broadband networks in Canada and the United States).
Study: Differentiation Key To Mobile WiMAX Success
February 13, 2007
Mobile WiMAX carriers will have to differentiate their services from cellular services if they are to survive, and even then, they will face many technical, cost, and competitive challenges in the United States, a study by In-Stat concludes.
However successful Mobile WiMAX (Worldwide interoperability for Microwave Access) carriers turn out to be, they will create downward price pressure on incumbent cellular carriers, In-State noted.
"When WiMAX competes with cellular, cellular operators will be forced to decrease their prices for wireless data services over cellular," said In-Stat's study. "Even if WiMAX fails after that point, it is unlikely that cellular carriers will ever again be able to charge the amount they currently do for wireless data services."
Mobile WiMAX , based on the Internet Protocol, promises to accelerate wireless-data speeds well beyond what's offered by current 3G cellular networks and deliver basic voice service. Voice service will be based on the technology's Voice-over-Mobile WiMAX spec, a VoIP technology that In-Stat says isn't likely to be used much before 2009 in the United States.
Because WiMAX carriers will offer voice and data services like cellular carriers, they'll have to "differentiate WiMAX from cellular data and offer each for a different purpose," the study said. One way would be to promote WiMAX for wireless internet access from laptop PCs and PDAs, while cellular data will be used for cellular handsets.
However they position their service, startup Mobile WiMAX providers "will need to undercut a cellular service provider's price for service if they are to have any chance of succeeding," the study said. Such price cuts, however, "will make it more difficult for that WiMAX provider to pay back his network," In-Stat noted. "In addition, if the cellular operators in the area start to see significant movement to WiMAX, they will reduce their service prices to compete."
Cellular carriers that build Mobile WiMAX networks, such as Sprint, will likely succeed by using the cellular network for data and voice and WiMAX for data-only service targeted to PDA and laptop users. In fact, it is Intel's intent to incorporate WiMAX in laptop chips, In-Stat said. The differentiated dual-network strategy "gives the [cellular] company more flexibility because it can deploy WiMAX when it likes, and it can shift its wireless data load between
WiMAX and cellular however it pleases."
Mobile WiMAX faces many other challenges, including competition by well-established cellular carriers whose networks will likely be more reliable than startup Mobile WiMAX networks. Other challenges include the lack of a
single worldwide WiMAX standard or frequency band that would drive down end-user device costs through economies of scale, said analyst Allen Nogee. The WiMAX standard, he explained, is an umbrella that covers several "profiles," each of which has a unique channel width, frequency band, and sometimes different duplexing forms to fit into various countries' existing spectrum allocations, In-Stat explained.
Current 3G cellular devices cost under $250, and some are starting to drop below $100, In-State noted. At these levels, "WiMAX devices will have a difficult time competing on price, and it's unlikely that the number of WiMAX devices produced will reach just this year's cellular 3G numbers for many years to come," Nogee said.
As for infrastructure, when backup power and similar additions such as backhaul are taken into account, WiMAX base stations are roughly equal in price to smaller cellular base stations, he said.
WiMAX's key advantage over cellular is 20 percent to 30 percent greater spectrum-efficiency than current cellular technologies. Down the road, however, CDMA2000 1X EV-DO Rev. C technology will greatly accelerate cellular data speeds "and allow cellular to directly compete with WiMAX."
First Ever WiMAX-LTE 4G IPR Report
February 12, 2007
Maravedis Inc. (www.maravedis.bwa.com) today strengthened its reputation as telecom's most innovative market research and analyst firm with the launch of the first ever report on WiMAX/LTE 4G Intellectual Property Rights(IPR), an exhaustive analysis of real-world IPR and patent data complemented by a comprehensive worldwide patent Database.
"We can't underestimate the impact of IPR on WiMAX/LTE 4G Technology. By the end of the decade, we expect that up to $300 million will have been spent annually on IPR for WiMAX alone" said Robert Syputa, Senior Analyst at Maravedis and author of the report. "The most successful companies focus R&D where they can benefit the most and leverage IPR. Unfortunately, many companies become so technology centric that they fail to align R&D with commercial success" Continued Syputa.
The WiMAX/LTE 4G IPR Policy & Market Report provides service providers with a powerful foresight on their upcoming IPR expenses, and helps manufacturer to truly position their IPR in the global patent scheme in order to direct their R&D and patent strategy. It also equips Investors and financial analysts with the right tools to gain insight on upcoming trends in the industry, identify potential investment, provide a solid foundation to build a strong marketing plan and understand how IPR and market trends may pressure new IPO's.
Maravedis invested many months gathering information, interviewing key industry players, and competently analyzing raw patents and IPR data to provide Stakeholders with a true effective, factual, detailed and forward looking set of data and analysis tools. "3GPP and other emerging technologies had databases and analysis enabling the industry to understand the potential of the technology, but no such tool was available for WiMAX/4G before. Through the expected market size, coupled with the rapid changes happening with the major players, there was a clear need to look ahead at the impact IPR and patent issues will have on the industry". said Adlane Fellah, President of Maravedis.
The report covers IPR policies, regulations, climate, forecasts, to name and few, and reveals several important IPR trends that indicate the role major players could have in the emerging WiMAX/4G markets.
Key Findings from the Author:
- Recent IPR trends, consolidation among smaller players and entrance of incumbent suppliers indicates further acquisitions by the larger players, such as Intel, Qualcomm, Samsung and Motorola, who will play a significant role in determining overall IPR costs in the WiMAX/LTE 4G market
- Qualcomm's position in 802.16e is limited but presents a stronger position for technology advances that will impact 4G.
- Samsung own the broadest field of OFDMA and related technologies used in WiMAX and LTE 4G.
- Wi-Lan, an IPR corporate licensor, has early agreements for WiMAX and related IPR licenses with Redline Communications, Cisco and Nokia, which sets benchmarks for commercial precedents of IPR agreements.
Maravedis expects that IPR disputes for WiMAX/4G will be less onerous than experienced in cellular due to the processes and policies developed, as well as the maturity and cross-discipline diversity of technologies comprised in emerging systems.
Explosive Growth in WiMax Patent Activity Promises Surge in Industry
February 03, 2007
Mountain View, CA, PRWeb - A new report from WTRS finds dramatic growth surge in WiMax patent activity. Completing intensive study of almost 500 WiMax related patents, WTRS now predicts phenomenal increase in WiMax industry, but IP litigation activities will affect market leaders.
WTRS announces 2007 edition of its unique WiMax Patent Directory. This Report demonstrates the enormous growth in innovative WiMax activity; last year's Directory covered about 50 new patents and this year's new Report studies over 475!
The Report offers analysis of current and pending WiMAX-related patent litigation, and analysis of IP and Patents with registered IEEE Letters of Assurance.
Patents are tracked for mobile and fixed WiMAX and related technologies such as WiBRO. Both US and worldwide patents are evaluated by company with a focus on fundamental network architecture, enabling software, and RF chipsets. Detail is extensive and the 500 page Report is both comprehensive and accessible, organized with an easy-to-use interface; patents to claims are hyperlinked within the document.
"The Wireless Triple Play industry will be dominated by WiMax in both fixed and mobile forms," according to Principal Analyst Kirsten West. "We are starting to see examples of WiMax used to solve actual business pain and that is the prerequisite for broad adoption in the Wireless Triple Play market."
In the past this Report has been purchased by OEM's, but also by a diverse Group, including a law firm and even a University Department. A previous version was even purchased by another Market Research firm! This is a unique publication, without a comparable offering from any other firm, but also is a tool allowing purchasers to identify those individuals making significant contributions to the WiMax universe.
Using only publicly available information, meticulously gathered from public patent sources, company information, and other research this report is truly an invaluable resource for any company participating in the WiMAX sector, or planning a potential entry into this market.
Ovum paints grim picture for Asia Pacific WiMAX
January 06, 2007
Analysis and consulting firm Ovum is predicting a rough road ahead for fixed and mobile WiMAX, saying both will remain niche technologies in most Asia Pacific markets for the next five years.
In his report WiMAX in Asia: reality bites, analyst Nathan Burley delivers his downbeat estimate for the technology despite the opportunities afforded by uneven fixed and mobile network deployment, and governments eager to latch onto the technology to boost domestic social policy initiatives and export-industry development.
Key to its poor performance is delays in standardising Mobile WiMAX for the mass-market, the report says. With 3GPP technologies being built out fast, the short to medium-term window of opportunity for large scale mobile WiMAX is closing, Ovum says.
It adds that both fixed and mobile WiMAX will remain niche technologies in most markets for the next five years. Beyond this, much depends on the relative volume of WiMAX chipsets built in to consumer electronics, and the extent to which the cellular community can maintain the momentum currently seen with HSPA deployment.
Mobile WiMAX faces considerable barriers to implementation, the report goes on to say, chief among them is the absence of a universally designated spectrum band. The technology is also less specified than comparable 3G broadband technologies and will take time to develop the scale economies essential to compete with 3G.
Despite publicity and trials, few larger mobile operators - especially in developed markets - have committed to large scale commercial deployment of WiMAX as a mobile broadband technology. Ovum says it sees 3GPP technologies (currently high-speed packet access, or HSPA) as the clear leader for wireless broadband in the medium term.
As a result, smaller operators will concentrate on deploying WiMAX in niche markets such rural areas poorly served by fixed DSL or cable.
In developed markets especially, WiMAX will co-exist with 3G/HSPA as fixed operators choose to extend the reach of DSL and possibly as a fixed substitute in cities.
Ovum says that in established 3G/HSPA markets, mobile WiMAX will need to demonstrate superior service or vastly cheaper prices in order to gain widespread take-up - something it sees as unlikely in the short to medium term.
Article by Ken Lewis for m-net.
WiMAX to trail mobile broadband market by 2010
November 23, 2006
New alternative technologies will add just 6 percent of the forecasted 500 million mobile broadband global users by 2010, reported Strategy Analytics. Despite all the hype surrounding alternative technologies like WiMAX, iterations of existing technologies will dominate the mobile broadband arena in the short term.
According to the research firm's report, Beyond 3G: Looking for True Mobile Broadband, technologies such as mobile WiMAX and UMTS TDD will lead the alternative technology camp. However, enhancements to existing technologies, including HSPA and EV-DO Revision A+ will constitute the bulk of the market and are where the money lies in the short-term.
"We're not likely to see technologies like mobile WiMAX or indeed, anything else, really take off until the next decade," said Sara Harris, senior industry analyst at Strategy Analytics and author of the report. "However, HSPA and EV-DO will be more than acceptable for most users, giving them the speed and flexibility they want to use their fixed internet applications on the move."
Telecom Giants Stake Out WiMAX Turf For Broadband On Horizon
November 23, 2006
While mobile broadband is mostly "a business of tomorrow," some early consumer response is quite promising. Clearwire, a startup with $2 bil. in financing including investments by Intel and Motorola, says it has achieved penetration rates of 10%-15% in seven areas where it has offered its wireless broadband service for at least 11 months.
"This low-double-digit penetration rate from Clearwire is about double expectations of a mid-single-digit penetration," notes Kagan Research senior analyst John Mansell.
Telecommunications giants are scrambling to carve out a beachhead in wireless broadband either with their own proprietary systems or aligned with the WiMAX Forum, an industry group setting standards. Broadband wireless will require billions of dollars for spectrum licenses, technology development and infrastructure to deploy nationally; current cell phone technology and infrastructure is inadequate.
"The holy grail is true mobility in wireless broadband that would be analogous to today's cell phone service but with faster speeds," says Mansell, who will moderate a Dec. 7 audio conference on WiMAX. "But we're not there yet. Service providers today are offering at best just portability that is experienced in 'hot spots.'"
WiMAX aims to drive down costs by standardization, which also will facilitate roaming capability allowing customers to be handed off between different carriers.
"While there's a growing consensus WiMAX faces a significant set of financial, technical and regulatory challenges, there's also tremendous upside," Mansell writes in a Kagan Research report, JupiterKagan Concept Report: WiMAX: Friend or Foe to Incumbent Carriers? "At mid-year, of the 400 mil. with Internet access worldwide, there were about 100 mil. dial-up and 300 mil. broadband subscribers. Only 1%-2% of the broadband subscribers were wireless."
The leading cell phone carriers are evolving already established standards, notes Mansell, while WiMAX has strong support from rural carriers and new entrants.
Maravedis Predicts Internet Penetration in Canada to Exceed 70% by 2017
November 09, 2006
The leading telecom market research and analyst firm Maravedis introduces its new Canadian Internet Database, called CID. In addition to providing information on Canadian Internet penetration rates by year, region and technology, CID offers the unique capability to access precise information classified by Postal Code, a first in the industry.
"We understand the investment implications of offering Internet access, and we believe this substantial database is essential to Internet Service Providers (ISP) looking to enhance revenues, improve customer loyalty, identify new prospective clients, create new customized service offerings and increase addressable market," explained Julien Regoli and Adlane Fellah, the architects and originators of CID.
The analysis demonstrates an intrinsic correlation between Internet usage and specific demographic factors. Age, income, education and location are the most influential factors. "We have created an equation to represent this correlation and used it to estimate the level of household penetration in each of Canada’s Forward Sortation Areas (FSA), which provides users with higher quality projections taking into account the detailed socio-economic characteristics of this market," continued Fellah.
Over 95% of Internet users on broadband access by 2017
According to Maravedis, Internet penetration per household in Canada will exceed 70% by 2017, and it is anticipated that 95% of Internet users will have subscribed to a high-speed (broadband) connection.
"The average monthly bandwidth usage per residential subscriber has increased from 50 Mbps in 2003 to 300 Mbps in 2005, which definitely makes dial-up service an increasingly frustrating experience," says Adlane Fellah. Dial-up Internet subscribers are typically new or occasional users. And, as they increase their use, subscribers are likely to upgrade to a high-speed connection at some point.
Canada is a leading country when it comes to Internet penetration as well as broadband deployment, and they continue to intensify although at a slower pace than in the past few years. CID clearly projects a growing gap in penetration rate between the Atlantic and the Western Provinces. By 2017, British Columbia is expected to possess the highest Internet penetration rate at close to 80%, followed by Ontario and Alberta in the high 70s%. In contrast, Quebec, New Brunswick and Newfoundland are expected to reach around 55% penetration.
Although growth has decelerated, the Canadian Internet market will be interesting to watch in the coming years. Between changes in regulation and the introduction of new technologies such as Broadband Wireless Internet through WiFi and WiMAX, we expect an exciting future ahead as Wireless technologies are deployed, providing subscribers with portability and mobility features. As a result, Maravedis foresees there will be several subscriptions per household - a phenomenon Canadian households are experiencing today with cell phones.
Maravedis' CID also includes a WiMAX supplement with all the vital information on current license holders in the 2.5 GHz band in Canada.
Report: WiMAX On Track To Compete For Dominance In Wireless
September 19, 2006
Maravedis announced the publication of its fourth edition of "WiMAX and Broadband Wireless (Sub-11GHz) Worldwide Market Analysis and Trends 2006-2012" report.
WiMAX is on track to compete for mainstream wireless markets according to Maravedis Report "Nothing points out the immediate course into mass market development than the planned introduction of multimode WiMAX mobile plus cellular semiconductors and devices," said Adlane Fellah, Senior Analyst at Maravedis, and co-author of the report.
This 800-page report provides a comprehensive analysis of the broadband wireless market, technology trends, regulation as well as Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). The document also considers the experience of service providers whilst providing an overview of key emerging countries-BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), in addition to an in-depth analysis of municipal markets.
Highlights of the Report include:
- Service providers are examining fixed mobile convergence to reverse ARPU decline.
- Service providers care about certification, standardization and economies of scale in the medium to long term, but they want robust equipment with NLOS capabilities today.
- The cost of indoor CPE will fall to US$75 by 2008, which will in turn boost the proliferation of WiMAX.
- BRIC countries will represent one third of accumulated BWA/WiMAX subscribers by 2012.
- Lack of spectrum allocated for WiMAX China and India is of concern, and may impact WiMAX adoption if not resolved by 2008.
- The essential IPRs (patents) for WiMAX technology being held by different and non-dominant companies will provide WiMAX the opportunity to emerge as being a lower cost technology.
- The WiMAX equipment market is forecasted to reach an annual US$6 billion in 2012, and will have generated accumulated revenues of US$15 billion by then.
- Maravedis predicts an accumulated 87 million BWA subscribers by the end of 2012, 67 million of which will be WiMAX subscribers.
SOURCE: Maravedis
81% of WiMAX Networks Built with Alvairon Equipment in 2005
August 03, 2006
Alvarion Ltd. announced that Sky Light Research, a leading broadband wireless analyst firm, has reported the company's 2005 WiMAX market share at 81% of all deployments worldwide. Since its launch in mid-2004, Alvarion's BreezeMAX™ system has been successfully deployed in over 180 installations in more than 80 countries, including with carriers such as T-Com (Germany), ENTEL (Chile), Iberbanda (Spain), and Kenya Data Networks (Kenya).
"Alvarion’s early entrance into the WiMAX market with its WiMAX-ready BreezeMAX 3500 radio in 2004 has paid off with a dominant leadership position for the company. Now that BreezeMAX has been certified, the early successes with WiMAX-ready equipment will be leveraged in 2006 and beyond as the certified WiMAX market ramps,” said Emmy Johnson, principal analyst of Sky Light Research. “Alvarion has been a leading advocate of WiMAX since its inception, and has taken great effort in promoting the technology for the larger, global telecommunication market.”
In 2003, Alvarion was the first company to partner with Intel to work together to incorporate Intel's 806.16-2004 chips into the company's systems. Since then, Alvarion has led the WiMAX industry with numerous milestones:
• Launched a WiMAX system -- BreezeMAX 3500 in June 2004
• First to offer a commercial WiMAX CPE, BreezeMAX PRO, using the Intel® PRO/Wireless 5116 broadband interface chip
• First with a commercial self-installable WiMAX CPE, BreezeMAX Si, paving the way for portable and nomadic services
• First to demonstrate 4Motion™, an end-to end mobile WiMAX solution based on IEEE 802.16e-2005, to provide personal broadband services anytime, anywhere
• Several industry awards, including IEC's InfoVision and WCA's Best Technology Foresight
• Certification of BreezeMAX and successful interoperability of its mobile WiMAX solution, 4Motion™, with end user devices embedded with a WiMAX chip
"We are pleased to have our revenues, trials activity and market leadership in WiMAX confirmed by a top analyst firm such as Sky Light," said Rudy Leser, Alvarion's corporate vice president of strategy and marketing. "As a pioneer of the broadband wireless industry for more than a decade, we continue to be well positioned to lead the development and deployment of both fixed and mobile WiMAX systems as evidenced by the depth and breadth of our partners, customers, and deployments globally. Our vast experience ensures that when carriers choose BreezeMAX to build their networks, they receive the most advanced technology, the best WiMAX network available, and are able to take advantage of new, advanced features and functions as they become available in the future. We are proud to be partners to so many of our customers deploying commercial WiMAX systems."
WiMAX - Where Are You Now and Where are You Going?
July 26, 2006
By contributing writer Alan J. Weissberger.
We have previously written about Fixed WiMAX (standardized by IEEE 802.16-2004 and certified by the WiMAX Forum) gear being used to provide broadband wireless access in developing countries (e.g. India, Russia, Brazil). Other applications include DSL fill in, WiFi hot spot and Muni WiFi backhaul, n x DS1/E1 wireless tail circuits from an interexchange carrier's POP, and even cellular voice backhaul.
While we still think those applications are quite viable, we are concerned that there have been no large fixed WiMAX networks deployed or announced in the U.S. Is it because 3.5GHz licensed spectrum is not widely available, the applications do not present a good ROI for operators, or some other reason? We would like to see something more solid than a trial run from Sprint-Nextel, AT&T, Bell South, or Clearwire.
Meanwhile, a number of industry experts are claiming that Fixed WiMAX will be obsoleted by IEEE 802.16e (2005), which is capable of providing both fixed and mobile service. But we also hear that this later version of WiMAX has been optimized for the 2.3G to 2.5GHz band and not for 3.5GHZ, which is more widely available in the rest of the world. Indeed, 802.16e appears to be the only broadband wireless network technology capable of supporting both fixed and mobile access - with QOS and traffic scheduling thrown in for good measure. In fact, IEEE 802.16e is a good choice for the operator wishing to build a single network that realizes the vision of fixed-mobile convergence and personal broadband services, because it offers the customer a variety of services and supports different traffic types over a single broadband wireless access interface.
But is 802.16e mainly a unified wireless network, or an overlay to 3G networks - which cannot yet provide the high data rates, throughput and spectrum efficiency needed for high bandwidth applications? If the 3G data technologies become available by 2008 will that eliminate the need to combine 802.16e with 3G to form a hybrid mobile network? Perhaps operators deploy the fixed version of 802.16e in conjunction with a full service 3G mobile voice/data/video network.
As we explore these issues in depth in future articles, we request your help. What issues or topics are you interested in? For example, are you curious about WiMAXs role in future municipal wireless networks? What about VoIP over WiMAX handsets? Is there really a business case for 802.16e as a 3G overlay network for high speed data, graphics and video - as Intel claims? The stage for WiMax applications is not fully set yet, but the dust is settling, and the picture is beginning to emerge. Return here for more developments as they occur.
Total WiMAX Service Subscribers Expected To Reach 13.98 Million In 2011
July 25, 2006
Research and Markets has announced the addition of WiMax: Latest APAC Market Development to their offering.
Since 2005, WiMAX has generated tremendous public interest in the APAC region. Most APAC telecommunication industry regulators have given the go-ahead for WiMAX. Service providers, especially competitive service providers, are using WiMAX as a perfect chance to get into the broadband and wireless business. However, their expected cost-effectiveness of WiMAX will not arrive soon, since the standardization and commoditization of WiMAX equipment will take more time to complete. Nevertheless, many WiMAX networks were set up for trials and commercial deployments in APAC.
In the 13 APAC countries, the total APAC market, including WiMAX CPEs, WiMAX base stations, and WiMAX commercial services (but excluding the non-radio-access part of total WiMAX solutions), is valued at US$106.4 million in 2006 and the figure will grow 40.4 times in 5 years time, to US$4,300.6 million in 2011. Total WiMAX service subscribers are expected to reach 13.98 million in 2011.
Maravedis predicts WiMAX subscribers to reach 13 million in India by 2012
June 27, 2006
The leading telecom market research and analyst firm Maravedis, in partnership with Tonse Telecom, the Indian leader in Telecom market research and analysis, today released a new Market study entitled “India Wireless Broadband and WiMAX Market Analysis and Forecasts 2006-2012”. This study provides a detailed review of current regulatory and overall wireless market trends in India.
“According to our research, we can expect 13 million WiMAX subscribers in India by 2012” said Adlane Fellah, co-author of the report and Senior Analyst at Maravedis Inc. The Indian economy is flourishing and the demand is quickly outpacing the supply of telecommunications services provided by the legacy wired telecommunication infrastructure built during the state monopoly era. “More than 70% of Indian households do not have access to fixed telephone services. Instead, customers have flocked to cellular phone carriers, which have built a tremendous infrastructure to provide services to more than 100 million customers” continued Fellah.
Broadband services were launched in India in 2005. ADSL services now cover 300 towns with 1.5 million connections while broadband wireless subscriber figures are still negligible. In a country where monthly broadband ARPU is estimated at $8-10, and computer penetration is still at around 4%, BWA / WiMAX adoption will depend on very low cost end-to-end pricing for connectivity including the compute platform and CPE. The Indian telecom sector operates in a volume-driven market. If WiMAX is to succeed it will only be on the premise of huge volumes not, small deployments
“Bharti TeleVentures, Reliance, BSNL and VSNL (Tata Group) have all acquired licenses in 3.3GHz range and are in various stages of trials and modest commercial deployments. Maravedis Tonse has gathered evidence that larger deployments will start to materialize in early 2007 but volumes in the millions will take a few years to materialize. The planned release of additional spectrum will be critical to this” explained Fellah.
“However, shortage of spectrum is a serious obstacle for massive adoption of broadband wireless and WiMAX in India. For WiMAX to prosper in India, license holders will need at least 20MHz of spectrum while they currently hold 12MHz or less. 20MHz is a minimum to support wide scale deployments and hence a profitable business case” added Sridhar, co-author of the report and CEO of Tonse Telecom
Government appears to be serious about solving the problem by releasing some of the spectrum from the departments of Space and Defense and the TRAI is currently engaged in a critical public consultation. Wireless adoption is essential if the government wishes to meet its ambitious plans.
Flash Can Impact Everything
June 26, 2006
By Alan Weissberger.
On May 25th 2006, Alan Weissberger attended an IEEE Magnetics-Consumer Electronics seminar where Dr. Eli Harari, CEO of SanDisk, spoke about current trends and applications of Flash memories. It's widely recognized that consumer electronics has been the main engine of tech growth, but the influence of dramatically improved price-performance of Flash memories have been underestimated by most analysts. Flash technology has advanced to unlock much greater price elasticity, which is accelerating growth in the consumer electronics market -especially smart phones capable of receiving streaming and real time video.
Let's focus on mobile video and multi-media gaming on the move. While issues like wireless spectrum, packet radio protocols, compression, DRM have grabbed the headlines, Flash memory is just as important an enabler of mobile video and multi-media on handsets. In fact, the storage of video, music, emails, and web content on handsets is growing at a 68% CAGR, according to Dr. Harari.
The combination of advances in Flash technology with 3G mobile broadband (including WiMAX) is enabling much richer content distribution to handsets. With a projection of 1 billion new global consumers of mobile broadband in the next decade, there will be tremendous growth in this area. The mobile content evolution will give rise to smart phones that include video and music downloads, web access, multi-media gaming, camera, GPS functionality, and other applications. DRM solutions are expected to accelerate consumption.
What about the future? A terabyte in your pocket, a petabyte in your home? Within the next decade we might see these levels of personal storage requirements. Already a terabyte hard disk drive can be seen on the near horizon. New applications will drive storage capacity, performance, and unit growth for all types of storage devices. Growing storage demand for consumer applications will join with industrial storage system demand to create an unprecedented demand for storage.
Within 5 years personal content (created by non-commercial sources) will equal and even exceed commercial content in many homes. Supplying storage to support the creation and delivery of commercial as well as personal and quasi-commercial digital content, including non-traditional delivery to support new markets such as IPTV and mobile phones will become an important factor ensuring storage growth.
Find out What Technology Will Win in a Converged Broadband Access Market
June 23, 2006
Research and Markets has announced the addition of "Competitive Access Markets: The Broadband Challenge for Fixed and Mobile Operators" to their offering.
This report looks at the fast-developing fixed and mobile broadband access markets and how they will remove traditional barriers between fixed and mobile services, leading to a new, more competitive market environment, dominated by personalisation, price and performance. The report examines key technology options and contains market forecasts of major markets in America, Europe and Asia-Pacific and answers the fundamental question "What is the long term revenue impact of broadband access and IP connectivity?"
It provides the user with detailed market analysis of key trends together with forecasts of the number of broadband subscribers from 2006 to 2016. It also provides an in- depth market analysis of xDSL, FTTC and FTTH equipment shipments from 2006 to 2016. It also covers details of broadband access revenues from 2006 to 2016.
WiMAX Market Poised to Nearly Triple, Semico Says
May 15, 2006
If necessary factors are met, WiMAX will be the leading contender for mobile services amongst wireless solutions with revenues increasing from $21.6 million in 2005 to $3.3 billion in 2010, Phoenix, Arizona-based Semico Research predicts.
The firm asserts that WiMAX will do for broadband what cellular has done for phones - make broadband mobile and will become part of a number of networks, providing broadband wireless access in rural areas, offering backhaul services, offloading data traffic, and making broadband mobile.
"There is controversy surrounding this technology because it is not the only broadband option out there," said Connie Wong, director of wireless communications for Semico, in a statement.
"However, the establishment of global standards, the ability to provide higher throughput and high reliability to the customer, and affordable services in the form of low-priced CPEs will catapult WiMAX into the driver-seat if met," she continued.
According to Semico's recent WiMAX forecast that includes both base stations and CPEs, the market is poised to grow from a mere 6,000 units in 2005 to 4.27 million units in 2010, a compound annual growth rate of 268.3 percent.
"The hype over WiMAX is hot and the market has been flooded by participants. Intel and Fujitsu have invested heavily in WiMAX and their aggressiveness in this market will be a strong catalyst, not to mention it will provide excellent opportunities for start-up companies," Wong concluded.
Estimates Given of 4.4 Million VoWiMAX Subscribers around the World by 2009
April 21, 2006
WiMAX has the potential to transform broadband access markets, worldwide. As an alternative broadband technology, WiMAX can compete with DSL and cable-modem services without the need for heavy regulation. Yet, the market success of WiMAX is far from certain. Increased broadband competition, price compression and high subscriber acquisition costs threaten to drive margins even lower. Voice over WiMAX may be the key to broadband wireless profitability. By 2009, we forecast there will be 4.4 million VoWiMAX subscribers, worldwide. This report investigates the realistic market opportunities for WiMAX in metropolitan, rural, emerging country and least developed country markets. The business case for data-only and bundled voice/data services is examined. Multi-year forecasts for global broadband subscribers, WiMAX and VoWiMAX, by geographic region, are presented.
For more, see: Voice over WiMAX: The Key to Wireless Broadband Profitability? (Research and Markets).
The Bull Market Report Examines WiMAX
April 18, 2006
The Bull Market Report, an online investment newsletter focused on long-term growth and income-generating stocks, announced that it has provided subscribers with a report on companies set to benefit from WiMAX, including Alvarion (ALVR), ADC Telecommunications (ADCT), Airspan Networks (AIRN), and Vyyo (VYYO), among others.
Here is a sample: "The heightened cooperation within the industry is helping. According to a recent survey from market research firm Heavy Reading, over 80% of the 175 network operators surveyed anticipate commercial WiMAX services will be launched by the end of 2007, and 38% expect commercial launches this year. Asian and European operators were more bullish on 2006 launches than U.S. firms. Importantly, 60% said that WiMAX will have 'a profound long-term impact on their service offerings.'"
The Bull Market Report looked at the following topics:
- What are some of the catalysts driving the adoption of WiMAX?
- What risks do companies focused on WiMAX face?
- When should WiMAX technology really begin to take off?
- Which companies in the WiMAX space look like they offer the best investment opportunities?
Subscribe to a 14-day free trial: Bull Market.
Maravedis predicts large expansion of WiMAX in Brazil by 2010
April 02, 2006
There will be 768,000 accumulated BWA/WIMAX subscribers in Brazil by 2010, of which two thirds will be WiMAX, according to the latest report from leading research firm Maravedis, titled “BWA/WiMAX Brazilian Market Analysis.” This new report, the first of a series that will include reports on Russia, India and other countries, provides an in-depth review of the broadband wireless and WiMAX markets and regulatory activity taking place in Brazil.
“Approximately 70% of those accumulated WiMAX subscribers will be residential mobile users, while fixed WiMAX will continue to be driven by large and SME customers,” explained Eduardo Prado and Adlane Fellah, co-authors of the report.
The Brazilian players are anxiously awaiting the new 3.5 GHz auction to start sometime in July 2006, before federal elections due in October 2006. Bidders will want either to expand their current coverage areas or to enter the WiMAX arena. Moreover, positive regulatory changes in the 2.5 GHz band will open the WiMAX market starting 2007.
Maravedis predicts that the most active players will be companies with deep pockets such as Telemar, Brazil Telecom, Embratel and Telefonica, who are thoroughly testing the technology and crafting their business plans.
“Overall, the total accumulated equipment market size for BWA/WiMAX in Brazil will represent a lucrative US$300 million by 2010, which makes Brazil a key market for BWA/WiMAX vendors for the years to come,” Fellah added.
Report Says Telcos Are Primed for Major Rollouts of WiMax in 2006-07
March 16, 2006
Telecom network operators are convinced that WiMax will have a positive impact on their ability to deliver new services, and most expect to see deployment of WiMax in commercial networks by the end of 2007, according to results of a worldwide survey of service provider professionals conducted by Heavy Reading, Light Reading Inc.'s market research division.
Service Provider WiMax Deployment Plans, the latest report from Heavy Reading, presents full results and analysis of an invitation-only survey gauging not only service provider perceptions of WiMax, but also their plans to incorporate the new broadband wireless technology into their own networks. A total of 262 service provider professionals, representing more than 175 different network operators worldwide, participated in the survey.
"Service provider respondents overwhelmingly view WiMax as a technology that will have at least some impact on the future of telecom networks, and a solid majority expect it to have a major impact," the report states. "Less than 2 percent of the 262 respondents categorized WiMax as offering 'more hype than hope,' while nearly 60 percent said WiMax would have a major long-term impact on telecom networks and services. These results clearly show that WiMax developers have succeeded in making a strong case for their technology, and that service providers are expecting WiMax to have a place in future network designs."
Other key findings in the 24-page report include the following:
Positive attitudes toward WiMax and its role in telecom networks cut across all service provider types. For every type of service provider included in the survey, more than 50 percent of respondents said WiMax would have a major long-term effect on networks and services. The carrier respondents most bullish about WiMax's prospects were those from long-distance operators (69.1 percent of whom said WiMax would have a major long-term impact), Bell companies (68.8 percent), and operators of conventional wireless networks (68.4 percent).
A majority of respondents say their company is now evaluating WiMax, and almost all of the rest say their company is likely to take a close look at the technology once it matures -- which most expect to occur in the next year and a half.
The vast majority of respondents expect to see commercial WiMax service launched within the next two years. Nearly 40 percent of respondents expect commercial WiMax service to be available this year, and more than 80 percent anticipate it by the end of 2007.
Wimax To Constitute A Major Share Of Wireless Broadband Market
March 13, 2006
WiMAX is all set to hit the fixed access market for the time being whereas the basic and full mobility WiMAX is the goal for the year 2010. The kind of enthusiasm that WiMAX has instilled amongst the businesses as well as individuals isn't just for the wired version of the technology; Wireless WiMAX is where most of the silicon and large-scale equipment makers seem to be more interested in investing.
Setting up a broadband connection through Digital Subscriber Line or DSL includes heavy installation charges. WiMAX, on the other hand, is a comparatively less expensive alternative to DSL, as it doesn't require any modem or cables to get a WiMAX connection. The maintenance cost is also reduced with WiMAX connection.
As per the market research report titled "WiMAX Market Forecast (2006-2010)" published by RNCOS, it is predicted that the "WiMAX and other emerging high-speed wireless technologies will capture more than 42% of the wireless broadband business over the next few years, whilst 3G will have to content with less than 59% of the market in 2009."
The report covers every significant aspect of WiMAX technology such as the latest WiMAX market trends, the standards followed, the spectrum allocations and its functioning and implementation etc. The report also covers various benefits of WiMAX technology such as performance, coverage and so on.
Discussing the future market scope for WiMAX, the report estimates "The comparatively better performance and flexibility of WiMAX will enable this technology to takeover the high-speed wireless segment in the next 3 years. Though 3G will be important for its mobility, WiMAX will directly compete with DSL."
The report suggests that approximately half of the world consumer market will be captured by Wireless Networking standard 802.11n in the next 2-3 years. According to the report, WiMAX will be the most popular standard in the coming years.
For all those tech savvy guys out there the report offers a complete overview of the latest technology known as WiMAX. The report talks about several applications of this technology. Besides discussing the various facets of WiMAX, the report also provides a list of the technologies that pose challenge to WiMAX.
WiMAX being the center of attention for all, it's a true challenge for the observers to mark a difference between the myths and facts associated with this technology. The report provides with important topics such as the difference between fixed and mobile WiMAX while also discusses the availability and timing, spectrum challenges and the global approach of WiMAX.
Worldwide Telecommunications Markets anticipated to reach $446.9 billion by 2010
March 11, 2006
esearch and Markets has announced the addition of Worldwide Telecommunications and Communications Market Opportunities, Strategies, and Forecasts, 2005 To 2010 to their offering.
The worldwide telecommunications markets are set for extraordinary growth, doubling from $123 billion in 2004 to $282 billion by 2010. Communications represents opportunity for expansion of economies. The Internet based communications systems are vastly improving the efficiency of the supply chain for the largest 5000 companies worldwide.
Worldwide telecommunications and communications equipment market forecasts, shipments in dollars analysis indicate strong growth in very large existing markets. Markets at $197.6 billion in 2005 are anticipated to reach $446.9 billion by 2010.
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c21014
Free WiMAX Report from the OECD
March 11, 2006
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has published a rather good report into WiMAX and its impact on competition and regulation. It gives a status report of the technology and its rollout, then outlines the regulatory challenges, such as spectrum allocation, and there's a series of country-comparison tables on national policies: from issues like which countries have already issued licences to service restrictions, trials and potential services.
You can download the report for free from the OECD website - http://www.oecd.org/sti/telecom.
Wi-Fi to hold its own against WiMax well into 2009
March 10, 2006
WiMax's popularity will explode over the next three years, according to Infonetics, but it's not going to come close to Wi-Fi for a while.
Revenues from WiMax equipment are set for impressive growth, analysts report, but will continue to lag behind those from Wi-Fi.
Research company Infonetics predicts WiMax will reach revenues of $142m (£81.7m) this year, shooting up to $1.6bn by 2009.
While the milestone is an important one for the long-range broadband technology, revenues from WiMax pale in comparison to those from Wi-Fi, which jumped 10 percent year-on-year to reach $2.4bn.
Infonetics expects the Wi-Fi market to be worth $3.9bn before the end of the decade, largely driven by the enterprise segment, which will see a 120 percent jump in revenue between 2005 and 2009.
Wimax To Constitute A Major Share Of Wireless Broadband Market
March 10, 2006
WiMAX is all set to hit the fixed access market for the time being whereas the basic & full mobility WiMAX is the goal for the year 2010. The kind of enthusiasm that WiMAX has instilled amongst the businesses as well as individuals isn’t just for the wired version of the technology; Wireless WiMAX is where most of the silicon and large-scale equipment makers seem to be more interested in investing.
As per the market research report titled "WiMAX Market Forecast (2006-2010)" published by RNCOS, it is predicted that the "WiMAX and other emerging high-speed wireless technologies will capture more than 42% of the wireless broadband business over the next few years, whilst 3G will have to content with less than 59% of the market in 2009."
The report covers every significant aspect of WiMAX technology such as the latest WiMAX market trends, the standards followed, the spectrum allocations and its functioning & implementation etc. The report also covers various benefits of WiMAX technology such as performance, coverage and so on.
Discussing the future market scope for WiMAX, the report estimates “The comparatively better performance and flexibility of WiMAX will enable this technology to takeover the high-speed wireless segment in the next 3 years. Though 3G will be important for its mobility, WiMAX will directly compete with DSL.”
The report suggests that approximately half of the world consumer market will be captured by Wireless Networking standard 802.11n in the next 2-3 years. According to the report, WiMAX will be the most popular standard in the coming years.
Part 3, WiMax Market Update from the Field
March 06, 2006
Part 3, update by Alan J. Weissberger.
Heavy Reading’s WiMax findings:
Telecom network operators are convinced that WiMax will have a positive impact on their ability to deliver new services, and most expect to see deployment of WiMax in commercial networks by the end of 2007, according to results of a worldwide survey of service provider professionals conducted by Heavy Reading, Light Reading Inc.'s market research division.
Worldwide sales of WiMax products have been minuscule so far, but the true test of its potential is about to commence, now that the first standards-compliant products are hitting the market for deployment in real commercial networks. Certification by the WiMax Forum that products conform to various iterations of the IEEE 802.16 standard that defines WiMax began in January 2006 and is expected to trigger wide-scale deployment of WiMax equipment by telecom service providers. WiMax may actually eclipse some of the industry’s earlier "saviour" technologies, primarily because it is viewed as a linchpin for the future convergence of wireless and wire-line networks, in addition to promising advancement for broadband wireless services and applications.
Key findings of Service Provider WiMax Deployment Plans include the following:
Service provider respondents overwhelmingly view WiMax as a technology that will have at least some impact on the future of telecom networks, and a solid majority expects it to have a major impact. Less than 2 percent of the 262 respondents categorized WiMax as offering "more hype than hope," while nearly 60 percent said WiMax would have a major long-term impact on telecom networks and services. These results clearly indicate that WiMax developers have succeeded in making a strong case for their technology, and that service providers are expecting WiMax to have a place in future network designs.
Positive attitudes toward WiMax and its role in telecom networks cut across all service provider types. For every type of service provider included in the survey, more than 50 percent of respondents said WiMax would have a major long-term effect on networks and services. The respondents most bullish about WiMax's prospects include those from long-distance operators (69.1 percent of whom said WiMax would have a major long-term impact), Bell companies (68.8 percent), and operators of conventional wireless networks (68.4 percent).
The evaluation process for WiMax is already well underway, and the next 12 to 18 months will be critical in determining how many carriers make investments in WiMax and how extensive those investments will be. A majority of respondents say their company is now evaluating WiMax technology, and almost all of the rest say their company is likely to take a close look at WiMax once the technology matures – which most expect to occur in the next 12 to 18 months.
The vast majority of respondents expect to see commercial WiMax service launched within the next two years. Nearly 40 percent of respondents expect commercial WiMax service to be available this year, and more than 80 percent anticipate it by the end of 2007.
Part 2, WiMax Market Update from the Field
March 04, 2006
Part 2, update by Alan J. Weissberger.
WiMax Forum Status Update, by Mo Shakouri of Alvarion (WiMax Forum Board Member and Vice President Marketing Working Group).
WiMAX Forum Charter:
- Promote and accelerate WiMAX deployments to achieve leadership in the global wireless broadband market.
- Develop a framework for a high performance end-to-end IP network architecture supporting stationary, portable, and mobile users (a flat IP network that serves many different types of customers is envisioned).
- Deliver a trusted certification process (recently completed first product certifications).
- Evangelize business model, including favorable IPR policy.
- Foster a thriving ecosystem, including application and content players as well as telecom companies.
WiMAX Forum Participation: Some 500-600 delegates attended last week’s WiMax Forum meeting in Paris. The largest group attending now is operators, with over 120 operator company members. The leading companies in communications, computing, Internet, and content are participating in the WiMax Forum.
WiMax Forum’s 2005 Accomplishments:
- More than 150 WiMAX trials and early commercial deployments
- Membership doubled to 350+ companies
- Successfully bridged Korean WiBro service to become part of mobile WiMAX standard
- IEEE 802.16e standard ratified due to Forum company collaboration
- Mobile WiMAX network specification phase one completed
- Opened first independent WiMax Forum certification lab in Spain
- Executed two successful Plug Fests
- Completed three global member conferences
WiMAX Forum Message for 2006:
- WiMAX Delivers on its Promise
– Certified 802.16-2004/HiperMAN products (at 3.5 GHz) will be available in Q1’2006
- WiMAX is gaining market acceptance. Fixed WiMax will succeed, if only because there are many parts of the world which do not have a broadband infrastructure and WiMax will level the playing field for those countries.
– Over 150 operators are trialing and deploying WiMAX
– 802.16e lab on track to open in Q3’2006
A new white paper is now available which provides a vision for Mobile WiMax.
All white papers are available for download at Wimax Forum.org.
That concludes Part 2 of this WiMax Market Update. Due to the length of this report, we will be bringing this to you in three parts over the weekend, ending on Sunday.
Part 3 will cover some of Heavy Reading’s WiMax findings.
Part 1, WiMax Market Update from the Field
March 03, 2006
Part 1, update by Alan J. Weissberger.
Trendsmedia and Heavy Reading have just provided new insights into the future of WiMax. In separate reports, they examine WiMax market dynamics, vendor positioning, service provider plans, and WiMax Forum activities. On March 1st, Trendsmedia held a webinar for analysts, while Heavy Reading provided selected results of their WiMax service provider study via email. Both organizations announced the availability of their new WiMAX market research reports.
The WiMAX Vendor Map 2006-7, by Caroline Gabriel, Research Director, Rethink Research Associates (author of Trendsmedia’s WiMax report):
- Traditional fixed WiMax applications include: backhaul, rural access, developing nations without a broadband infrastructure, some metrozone/municipal (but WiFi dominates this space), SME services that would otherwise need T1/E1 access.
- Competing technologies: Lots of proprietary WiMax-like broadband wireless systems and extended range WiFi. Longer life predicted for proprietary technologies, e.g. Motorola’s Canopy.
- WiMax Spectrum: Most popular frequencies are 2.1-2.3GHz, 3.5Ghz (most trials use this), and 5.8GHz.
- Factors that are contributing to an emerging market for WiMax: Start of Certification and Harmonized Profiles from WiMax Forum, Increased R&D, Performance enhancements (many start-up vendors with unique intellectual property), Promise of portability and eventually mobility.
- Considering that IEEE 802.16e will support fixed, portable and mobile, and has major vendor support, how will 802.16-2004 (WiMax fixed) survive? The answer was a suprise: Most operators that deploy 802.16-2004 will not upgrade to 802.16e! They are focused primarily on fixed wireless applications to homes and SME or on enterprise T1/E1 access replacement via WiMax backhaul. They don’t need higher performance, mobility or new handsets for their targeted applications, and therefore do not have a need to move to 802.16e.
- Vendor strategies for 802.16-2004 (fixed WiMax): Improved economics for traditional markets, Extension to consumer markets, New backhaul partnerships, Combination with Wi-Fi, Low cost CPE, Coexistence with proprietary versions of WiMax, start-ups partnering with larger OEM vendors. The key driver to extend WiMax to consumer markets will be availability of low cost laptop add-in cards and USB plug-in cards.
- Other fixed WiMax applications include: DSL extension, Cellular backhaul, Portability, and Hybrid models which combine WiMax with WiFi.
- Despite the large vendors who will enter IEEE 802.16e market (e.g. Motorola, Alcatel, Samsung), the startups are expected to dominate... initially. The leaders are expected to be IP Wireless and Navini Networks. Other new players: ArrayCom, NexNet, Flarion and Soma. Fixed market leader Alvarion is expected to migrate to IEEE 802.16e for portability and eventually mobility.
- The operator view of IEEE 802.16e: gradual shift from portability to mobility: 60% of current top 20 BWA deployments are in developing countries (but all mobile broadband operators have a presence in developed countries). Operators are more interested in portability then true mobility!
- Chip Makers: While Intel remains the quintessential cheerleader, the start-ups are now leading the market. Likely that most will not survive as independent entities, but will be acquired for their intellectual property.
- Due to the dynamic nature of the market(s), it is predicted that in one year’s time there will be a dramatic change in the WiMax vendor map.
That concludes Part 1 of this WiMax Market Update. Due to the length of this report, we will be bringing this to you in three parts over the weekend, ending on Sunday.
Part 2 will include a WiMax Forum Status Update, by Mo Shakouri of Alvarion and Part 3 will cover some of Heavy Reading’s WiMax findings.
WiMax Pushing Beyond the Hype
March 03, 2006
Broadband wireless has moved beyond the pipedream stage, according to a new worldwide survey of 175 network operators.
More than 80 percent of the respondents believe that commercial WiMax services will be launched by the end of 2007, and almost half those say it will be this year. The survey results are included in a new report, "Service Provider WiMax Deployment Plans," from Heavy Reading.
The advent of WiMax networks has been delayed by a prolonged standards process and by vendor and service provider uncertainty about the availability of radio-frequency spectrum for the new technology. In January, however, the WiMax Forum certified the first wave of WiMax equipment, which is coming to market during the next few months. (See WiMax Gear Approved for Market.)
"In terms of hype cycles," notes the Heavy Reading report's executive summary, "WiMax may actually be eclipsing some of the industry's earlier 'savior' technologies, primarily because it is viewed as a linchpin for the future convergence of wireless and wireline networks, in addition to promising advancement for broadband wireless services and providers."
Among the survey findings:
- 82 percent of respondents expect commercial WiMax launch by the end of 2007.
- 38 percent expect it this year.
- 60 percent of telecom companies expect WiMax to have a profound long-term impact on their service offerings.
The confidence in upcoming WiMax deployments is slightly lower in North America (where 29 percent of respondents said they expect launches this year) than in Europe (42 percent) and Asia (44 percent).
More info directly from Heavy Reading.
WiMAX Forum Announces Availability of Mobile WiMAX Evaluation White Paper
March 02, 2006
The WiMAX Forum has published the first release of a multi-part technical white paper on mobile WiMAX. The first release is entitled, "Mobile WiMAX -- Part I: A Technical Overview and Performance Evaluation". The Table of Contents, Figures, and Tables included in the white paper are provided for your reference at the end of this message.
Download this paper from the WiMAX Forum website.
A companion paper, "Mobile WiMAX -- Part II: A Competitive Analysis", is a comparison of Mobile WiMAX performance characteristics with contemporary and evolving 3G technologies. Part II will be released in the coming weeks. This discussion and performance comparison provides a more complete picture of the role that Mobile WiMAX can play in the evolution of broadband mobile networks.
If you would like to speak with a member of the WiMAX Forum in regard to this white paper, please contact René Smith at 713-513-9566 or 281-701-3602.
WiMax Too slow, too expensive and not enough regulation
February 28, 2006
Traditional broadband players and mobile operators will be giving WiMax a wide berth for the years to come, new research predicts.
According to a report by Capgemini, a number of significant factors including cost, speed and the uncertain regulatory environment will serve to hobble WiMax.
The consultancy predicts that the millions of pounds spent on 3G licences, alongside the increased number of base stations needed to run a network, will deter mobile operators from investing in the long range wireless broadband technology.
Cost will also put off would-be broadband providers, as the falling cost of DSL access – down by over 20 per cent in 2003 and 2004 – will make it hard for pure play WiMax companies to enter the broadband market.
For mobile WiMax to become profitable, Capgemini said, providers will need to sign up a third of current data card users – that's 300,000 individuals.
WiMax proponents will additionally have to resolve issues of speed, the report said. With current speeds on WiMax networks between 1 and 3Mbps, the technology is still matched by HSDPA-upgraded 3G networks, which offer speeds of 1.8Mbps. Lack of bandwidth will also rule out the option of triple play providers using the technology.
However, the consultancy does predict a future for WiMax, serving communities outside the reaches of wired infrastructure. China, for example, could possibly take up the technology as 60 per cent of its population are not currently connected.
By Jo Best, source: Silicon.com
Trends of the WIMAX Gear Industry and Vendors
February 27, 2006
Research and Markets has announced the addition of Whats News? Official WIMAX Gear Debuts to their offering.
This Announcement-based Data Rich Deliverable (DRD) includes market intelligence on wireless equipment and is part of the Business Wireless subscription. This announcement discusses and analyses the trends of WIMAX gear and the vendors who are releasing WIMAX equipment. Several vendors announcements are discussed in this aDRD. The Expert Guide for this aDRD is Stephanie Atkinson. Forecasts are from 2005 through 2010 and include annual growth rates, as well as percentage of total market.
WiMax holds promise to help narrow digital divide
February 24, 2006
Wimax has plenty of potential in rural areas, as described in this interesting analysis and report on the impact of this imperfect technology.
WiMAX is touted as the tool that will bridge the "digital divide", providing areas that lack affordable telecommunication infrastructure with a critical tool for the future economic and social development of a community, region or nation. The United Nations is pushing for access to broadband across borders. Its challenge, "Information Society for All," resulted from the World Summit on the Information Society in 2003.
A driving reason for the development of WiMAX is its potential to reduce the cost and time to deploy and sustain high bandwidth access to phone, video and data networks to areas too remote for traditional wired telecommunication. This is not just a third world issue; we have communities in our own region that are grossly under served. We may have dial-up access or even a form of DSL or cable. But without the ability to achieve speeds higher than 2Mb/s download and 256kb/s upload, we will never be able to use new tools available.
The advantages of WiMAX are widely noted:
- A single station can serve hundreds of users.
- Endpoints can be installed far faster than wired connections.
- Data rates as high as 280Mb/s and distances up to 30 miles are possible.
- Users can operate mobile within three to five miles of a base station at up to 75Mb/s.
- No Federal Communications Commission (FCC) licensing is required for its use.
- It is a Worldwide standard and same frequency equipment should work together.
But where there are PROs, there are also CONs, and certain disadvantages to WiMax:
- Line of site is required for connections five miles or further.
- Rain and weather can disrupt the service.
- Other wireless equipment in the vicinity can interfere with WiMAX.
- Multiple frequencies will be used to deploy WiMAX.
- WiMAX is a power intensive technology and requires strong electrical support.
- Realities of WiMAX data rates are more like 72Mb/s, less as you add distance.
The applications of WiMAX will be different for every provider and user of the technology. Some will use it as a replacement of copper lines; some for backhaul to a central point; others will simply use the longer distance instead of Wi-Fi. Its deployment should prompt competition and competitive rates among the Incumbent (ILEC) and competitive local exchange carriers (CLEC).
Patrick Malley, general manager at Superior Broadband in Duluth, said 150 markets are being tested worldwide with the pre-certified WiMAX equipment, but his company will wait to evaluate the benefits until certified equipment is available from manufacturers. “WiMAX will benefit both the providers and end users when it comes available, and the customer equipment costs are below $250,” he said.
Meanwhile, a recent report by European communications consultant IDATE titled, “WiMAX: Ready for Deployment?” forecasts the worldwide WiMAX market will hit $3.5 billion by 2010. That's a 4 percent share of all broadband use. This growth will be driven by new equipment from an expanding list of hardware suppliers and an increasing number of WiMAX trials and deployments.
Will WiMAX change the world? Its proponents certainly believe it will. Can we use it in our U.S. regions right now, even as we contemplate fiber optic networks in some communities? Absolutely!
A Special Focus by Brian Fitzgerald
For Business North
See the entire article.
Highlights of the TIA Market Review Press Conference
Exclusive from Alan J Weissberger.
TIA invited selected media members to what turned out to be a very informative conference call on the status of the telecom market. The purpose was to promote the release of TIA’s 2006 Telecommunications Market Review and Forecast book. A few (Wimax-specific) highlights are presented here.
While TIA forecasts a compound annual growth rate of 9.0% for the U.S. telecom market for the period 2006-2009, they imply that this is predicated on a "clear need" to increase federal funding levels for telecom research. TIA expects government agencies such as NIST and NSF to realize huge funding increases as a result of the President’s proposed budget.
Wireless technologies continue to flourish and drive industry investment. 3G network investments are in full swing with roll outs emerging. WiMAX is set to become a larger factor as WiMAX Forum product certifications continue. This June the FCC is scheduled to auction off 90 megahertz of prime, globally harmonized spectrum for advanced wireless services. This includes the spectrum converted from federal use that TIA worked very hard to help secure. They are very excited about the new network build outs and upgrades that will result. TIA expects wireless subscriber growth to slow in percentage terms to 8.5% annually this year. Penetration will increase from 66% in 2005 to 88% in 2009. Revenue will grow at 11.2% annually fueled by 3G, new applications, more services.
International Wireless Markets: TIA sees wireless as a catalyst for growth (GDP). They believe there is enormous potential for expansion, particularly in China and India. Those two countries alone will add more than 400 million wireless subscribers during the next four years. Except for Europe, where the subscriber base is saturated, each region will average double-digit annual growth
Mobile WiMAX to Overshadow Fixed-only WiMAX by 2010
February 15, 2006
WiMAX will quickly dominate the fixed broadband wireless market, but its success in the mobile arena will be slower and more difficult to achieve, according to “Fixed or mobile WiMAX? Forecasts and assessment for the transition from 802.16-2004 to 802.16e WiMAX”, a new report from Senza Fili Consulting.
Despite this, 802.16e—the version of WiMAX that supports mobile access—will be the clear winner over 802.16-2004, which only supports fixed services. Its superior performance meets the requirements of both fixed and mobile service providers and creates the economies of scale needed to drive equipment prices down. Even though it will not be available for a year or more after 802.16-2004, 57% of WiMAX subscribers will be using 802.16e by 2010.
However, mobile operators with 3G networks will not be the first to adopt WiMAX, according to Monica Paolini, author of the report. “New and established service providers that are eager to enter the mobility and portability market, but do not have cellular spectrum, will drive WiMAX adoption,” she said.
By 2010, there will be 15.4 million WiMAX subscribers worldwide, generating US$16.5 billion in service revenues. “The hottest markets will be emerging countries like China and Mexico where WiMAX is a cost-effective last-mile solution, and countries like Korea with a high demand for portable and mobile services,” said Paolini. In 2010, 41% of subscribers will be in Asia-Pacific countries.
WiMAX’s success will depend on the availability of 802.16e WiMAX-certified products early in 2007 and on a substantial price reduction for portable and mobile subscriber units, which Senza Fili Consulting forecast to decline to the US$140-190 range by 2010.
This report assesses the technology and market potential of mobile and fixed WiMAX over the next five years. It includes an in-depth forecast of subscribers, service revenues and equipment revenues for 15 countries, six regions and for the worldwide market.
WiMax offers better value than 3G
February 11, 2006
WiMax will become a key base technology for new telcos deploying voice and high-speed data services, while many established carriers will use it to provide faster services and to reduce costs, new research has predicted.
Analyst firm TelecomView's latest report suggested that WiMax wireless wide area network broadband will become increasingly significant over the next five years.
"We forecast that WiMax will become an important part of mobile networks," said Ian Cox, principal analyst at TelecomView and co-author of the report.
"We think that WiMax will have 16 per cent of the subscribers and account for 16 per cent of capital expenditure in high-speed mobile networks in 2011."
Bob Larribeau, principal analyst at TelecomView and co-author of the report, added: "Our business case shows that the return on investment for WiMax is significantly better than for 3G technologies.
"WiMax will put the green field operator into a superior position and will push its adoption by the existing wireless carriers in order to remain competitive and reduce costs."
Asia Pacific may hold 44% of WiMAX market by 2009
February 11, 2006
As per the latest market research report “WiMAX Market Forecast (2006-2010)” by RNCOS, the subscriber base in the Asia Pacific region is expected to cross the 80,000 mark in 2005 and swell to over 3.78 million subscribers through 2009. WiMAX subscribers in the Asia Pacific region would constitute 44% of the worldwide subscribers by 2009.
The leading cellular service provider and mobile handset manufacturing company Alcatel is taking various measures to consolidate its position in the Indian handset market. Alcatel is going to utilize its wireless technology for providing high-speed telecommunications all over the world. It is also going to increasingly shift its major portion of R&D activities to India and China.
The implementation of WiMAX networks may be impeded due to the regional variations in spectrum regulations and competition from other new emerging mobile technologies.
The report gives an in depth analysis of the equipment revenue and unit sales forecasts for the South East Asian region through 2009. It reveals that South Korea is expected to provide the highest regional WiMAX equipment income of 41% in 2009, followed by China at 33% and Japan at a mere 18%. High average revenue per unit (ARPU) resulting from a large subscriber base developed by competitive wireless service providers, will assign the highest WiMAX service revenue to South Korea in 2009.
WiMAX and its different versions will provide high speed connectivity at speeds up to 70Mb/s over a range of 31 miles around the point of access. WiMAX is primarily built around broadband data, rather than voice, while 3G is primarily build around voice, with support for data services. Third generation (3G) cellular networks, such as GSM which are being rolled out worldwide, allows accessing the Internet at the speeds of up to 2Mb/s. The analysts are of the opinion that WiMAX equipment expenditure in the Asia Pacific region will amount to $2.0 billion by 2009. Existing mobile operators who want to provide broadband data and voice services could also utilize the technology.
Shipments of WiMAX equipment to reach 7.2M in 2010
February 02, 2006
The recent certification of commercial WiMAX gear represents a major milestone for the 802.16 industry but competition looms from existing and evolving IP based wireless technologies, according to a new study from Research and Markets. Alternatives to WiMAX such as FLASH-OFDM, UMTS-TDD and in some cases TD-SCDMA or HSDPA are being considered worldwide, the newly-published Emerging Wireless 2006 study also reports.
"Right now the competitive scenario suggests a fragmented market with diverse opportunities for vendors and operators alike," said report author Andy Fuertes. "WiMAX backers are expected to establish a healthy marketplace in the fixed marketplace and also within certain mobile segments, particularly in those nations deploying basic telecommunications infrastructure. Many opportunities still remain outside of WiMAX in both the fixed space and in the next generation of mobile networks. Some of these will bring more dollars to the table than we see WiMAX bringing in."
Shipments of WiMAX customer premise equipment is expected to reach 7.2 million units in 2010, according to the study, but these shipments will be dwarfed by TD-SCDMA shipments. The Chinese standard is expected to be up and running in networks by year-end 2006 and will serve 100 million subscribers in China by 2010.
The study also reports that FLASH-OFDM subscribers are expected to exceed 13 million in 2010, while UMTS FDD radio shipments are projected to be valued at $2 billion that same year.
Analysts expect push for 802.20 WiMAX rival
February 02, 2006
The resurgence of 802.20 wireless broadband access technology could represent serious competition for WiMAX, although the current momentum behind WiMAX will help, according to analysts.
Based on flash-OFDM technology developed by Flarion Technologies, 802.20 is due for a push by Qualcomm, which recently finalised its acquisition of Flarion.
“With the closing of Qualcomm’s acquisition of Flarion, 802.20 may get a new lease on life,” said Philip Solis, ABI Research’s senior analyst of wireless connectivity research.
“Qualcomm will almost certainly attempt to rally support from other industry participants, but many companies had abandoned 802.20 to support 802.16e,” he said.
The WiMAX Forum has announced the “first wave” of WiMAX certification for 802.16-2004 with Aperto Networks, Redline Communications, Sequans Communications and Wavesat having certified equipment.
“WiMAX backers are expected to establish a healthy marketplace in the fixed market and within certain mobile segments, particularly in nations deploying basic telecommunications infrastructure,” said Andy Fuertes, from Visant Strategies.
“The competitive scenario suggests a fragmented market with opportunities for vendors and operators alike,” he said.
WiMAX relying on Government, says wireless pioneer
February 01, 2006
The success of WiMAX wireless broadband will be decided by government determination to provide broadband access for all, according to the co-founder of Qualcomm, Dr Andrew Viterbi.
“I wouldn’t bet on it [WiMAX] being a big player. It comes down to economics," said Viterbi, speaking at the IEEE Radio and Wireless Symposium in San Diego.
"If there’s a big push from government towards universal service then it could happen, but I don’t see it. It’s not a technology issue it’s an economic issue."
According to Fawzi Behmann, director of strategic marketing at Freescale Semiconductor’s networking and computing systems group, the next two years will be “crucial” in determining the success of WiMAX.
"It’s long range, it’s got security and it’s high speed – all things that cellular stopped short of," said Behmann. "It comes down to how much service providers [cable, telco and mobile operators] invest to make it happen.
"There’s a lot of elements to make it compelling but adoption will come down to the resolution of business issues."
The Real Success Of WiMAX Will Depend on the Much Larger 802.16(e) Market
January 25, 2006
Research and Markets has announced the addition of WiMAX: Challenging the Status Quo to their offering.
WiMAX has an excellent opportunity to expand the market for fixed, portable and mobile broadband access. Though traction in the 802.16-2004 (fixed) market will be important, the real success of WiMAX will depend on the much larger 802.16(e) market. This report evalutes the market potential for WiMAX in these applications, the technologies that will compete with WiMAX and the potential outcomes. Worldwide estimates for WiMAX subscribers, base stations and CPE are provided in conservative and aggressive forecasts.
This recent report found the following:
- The aggressive forecast relies on subscriber units, currently about $500, falling to less than $100 by 2010.
- Though traction in the 802.16-2004 market will be important, the real success of WiMAX will depend on the much larger 802.16(e) market.
- 802.16(e) offers new and existing mobile operators performance and economical improvements over existing 3G technologies, especially in its ability to deliver ARPU-attractive, multimedia services.
The report, WiMAX: Challenging the Status Quo covers the worldwide market for WiMAX equipment and subscribers. It includes a five-year forecast of the worldwide WiMAX equipment market and of the WiMAX subscriber base. The report provides analysis of market trends including the impact of competing technologies.
For more information visit Research and Markets (WiMAX: Challenging the Status Quo).
WiMax Faces Renewed Competition: Study
January 25, 2006
The recent first wave of certifications for WiMAX products is a milestone, but that specific type of wireless broadband faces a serious challenge from a type of wireless broadband supported by Qualcomm, a study by ABI Research claimed Tuesday.
The first handful of WiMAX products were officially certified last week and many more product certifications are in the pipeline, Philip Solis, a senior analyst for the research firm said in a statement.
"This is a major milestone," Solis said. As more products are certified, an increasing number of wireless ISPs will start deploying the wireless broadband technology, he said. He also noted a large number of pre-standard WiMAX deployments are already in place or are being put into place.
However, while WiMAX has the strong backing of Intel, Solis noted that another type of wireless broadband, FLASH-OFDM, is now owned by Qualcomm. WiMAX is based on the 802.16 standard while FLASH-OFDM is based on the 802.20 standard. Qualcomm last week completed its acquisition of Flarion Technologies, which developed FLASH-OFDM.
"Qualcomm will almost certainly attempt to rally support from other industry participants, but many companies had abandoned 802.20 to support 802.16e," Solis noted. He noted that the acquisition of Flarion by Qualcomm gives FLASH-OFDM what he called "a new lease on life."
The study did not discuss the role of IPWireless' UMTS TDD, a third wireless broadband technology. Sprint Nextel is field testing that technology and recently increased is investment in IPWireless.
WiMAX Getting Real, but ABI Research Asks, What About 802.20?
January 25, 2006
With the recent announcement from the WiMAX Forum that some companies' equipment has successfully passed the "first wave" of WiMAX certification for 802.16-2004, WiMAX is finally starting to get real.
Aperto Networks' PacketMAX 5000 base station, Redline Communications' RedMAX AN-100U base station, SEQUANS Communications' SQN2010 SoC base station solution, and Wavesat's miniMAX customer premise equipment (CPE) solution are all now certified as "first wave" approved.
"This is a major milestone," according to ABI Research's senior analyst of wireless connectivity research, Philip Solis. "There is a long queue of companies waiting to undergo the same certification process. Then, they can proceed to 'wave 2', covering security and quality-of-service, and when they too are certified, we can expect to see larger numbers of products actually reaching the market."
At that stage the market will begin to widen, and we will start to see real interest from wireless ISPs in deploying certified fixed WiMAX solutions, rather than the proprietary systems that have been available for some time. In fact several initial deployments of pre-WiMAX networks are under way across the globe, including a growing number from Latin America.
The picture is complicated, however, by a resurgence of rival wireless broadband access technology 802.20, based on frequency-division duplex technology developed by Flarion. "With the closing last week of Qualcomm's acquisition of Flarion, 802.20 may get a new lease on life," notes Solis. "Qualcomm will almost certainly attempt to rally support from other industry participants, but many companies had abandoned 802.20 to support 802.16e ."
WiMAX equipment seen topping 3Billion in 2010
January 19, 2006
WiMAX equipment sale could reach more than $3 billion in 2010, fuelled by demand from fixed, portable, and mobile broadband access, a report from In-Stat said.
WiMAX's advantages in cost, flexibility and portability will also allow its providers to take market share from operators using proprietary wireless or wireline technologies, the market research firm said.
The market's biggest challenge will be worldwide harmonization of spectrum sufficient to allow manufacturers to mass-produce equipment at ever lower prices.
"Our aggressive forecast for pre-WiMAX-certified equipment, including subscriber units and base stations, is $42 million in 2005, growing to $3.2 billion in 2010," said Norm Bogen, In-Stat analyst. "The conservative forecast is $19 million and $2.1 billion, respectively."
WiMAX Struggles for Respect
January 18, 2006
WiMAX backers will likely roll out their first official products at a wireless industry confab Wednesday but analysts say major hurdles still remain for the much-hyped technology, which creates wider-ranging networks than Wi-Fi.
Products using WiMAX, which competes with third-generation cellular technology and citywide Wi-Fi, were scheduled to hit the market during 2005. But delays in the certification process have prevented any official products from coming out until now.
The technology got a big boost last year when Intel started making silicon for the technology, and major carriers in emerging markets like Eastern Europe, South America, and Africa began deploying the technology.
In the United States, carriers have hesitantly tested the technology. But without certification from the WiMAX Forum ensuring interoperability, official WiMAX products have not started selling in the U.S. The WiMAX Forum is backed by most big companies looking at WiMAX including Intel, Nokia, Samsung, Sprint, and AT&T.
However, a variety of WiMAX-like products are already creating an early market for companies like telecom pioneer Craig McCaw’s Clearwire and startup TowerStream.
The first WiMAX-certified products are expected to be announced at Wednesday’s Wireless Communications Association convention in San Jose, California. These early products are only for the first of two WiMAX standards or the “fixed standard” that will be used for more stationary wireless connections, competing with technologies like DSL.
The second WiMAX standard, which is more highly anticipated, is mobile WiMAX, designed to improve mobile connections for devices like cell phones and laptops. But mobile WiMAX is not expected to be certified and on the market until 2007.
Analysts and investors planning to attend the conference said fixed WiMAX is already a growing market, but that the future of mobile WiMAX is still uncertain.
About 1,200 executives and investors are expected to attend the conference, which will focus on WiMAX and wireless broadband technology.
Read more of this report, on Red Herring: WiMAX Struggles for Respect.
The WiMax Fixed-to-Mobile Evolution
January 16, 2006
In December 2005, Wavesat announced that its Chief Scientist, Dr. Jonathan Labs, was named Chair of the WiMax Forum’s new Evolutionary Task Group, created to develop technical specifications for the evolution of WiMax standards from fixed (802.16-2004) to mobile (802.16e). The key challenge for the group lies in ensuring a smooth transition between the two standards.
What makes the transition between fixed and mobile particularly challenging, Labs says, is the fact that the WiMax Forum is supporting two 802.16 technologies – OFDM 256 and scalable OFDMA. “What WiMax has adopted for fixed is the OFDM 256 mode – and for mobility, they’re pushing the scalable OFDMA mode,” he says. “And they are incompatible technologies, as they exist today.”
According to Labs, each technology has particular strengths for particular applications. “The difference between the two is how they deal with the channel characteristics,” he says. “In a mobile environment, your channels are going to be rapidly varying, and they’ve designed the PHY around that fact. And the more mobile you get, the more challenging the channel is to deal with.”
The group’s first task, Labs says, is to define the profiles that enable portable operation – with the aim of being able to certify portable equipment relatively soon, by the end of 2006. “The real challenge is the timetable that we’re working under, and being able to provide all the documentation and test procedures and test cases that are needed to certify that products are built according to the standard,” he says.
See more of this Insight report at: The WiMax Fixed-to-Mobile Evolution.
WiMAX Spectrum, a Much Cheaper Deal than 3G
January 12, 2006
The price paid per Hz for WiMAX spectrum is as much as 1,000 times lower than for 3G spectrum according to the latest report from leading research firm Maravedis titled "Spectrum Analysis - The Critical Factor in WiMAX versus 3G". This white paper provides an in-depth review of the economics of spectrum for both 3G and WiMAX around the world.
"The low cost of BWA/WiMAX spectrum compared to 3G is a clear driver for service providers to enter the field of wireless services with WiMAX" explained Adlane Fellah, author of this new research.
The much lower cost of WiMAX/BWA spectrum resulted in a high number of licensees with a total 721 license holders were awarded for BWA/ WiMAX against 106 licensees for 3G.
North America is by far the leading region in terms of the number of BWA/WiMAX licenses awarded with a total of 394 BWA/WiMAX license holders, against 186 licensees in Europe, 97 licensees in Asia, and 49 licensees in the CALA (Caribbean and Latin America) region.
Maravedis' latest research also revealed that, contrary to 3G licenses, the BWA/WiMAX licenses awarded across the world are essentially regional licenses. North America is a perfect example of a situation where 100% of its WiMAX/BWA licenses are regional. In Europe and the CALA region the proportions are 78% and 71% respectively.
Maravedis predicts that this crowded environment will result into a highly fragmented, unpredictable and more competitive marketplace with smaller and cost-aggressive players.
On the other hand, a low-cost spectrum has also attracted players with more modest pockets than large mobile operators. “One should remember that BWA spectrum was initially allocated for fixed only applications and remains so in many countries,” Fellah added.
The report also suggests that most regulators have not kept pace with the progress of technology that makes fixed-mobile convergence a reality. Whether it is fixed applications with CDMA technology or mobile applications with WiMAX, the two fields are converging and will be competing for a share of the one billion mobile subscribers market.
Spectrum is a Key Issue for Wimax's Development in China
January 12, 2006
Research and Markets has announced the addition of Infrastructure & Technology Focus Report of WiMAX 2005 to their offering.
As a promising new technology, WiMAX has gained tremendous media exposures through heavy promotion by WiMAX Forum and key members such as Intel and ZTE. However, to make any real progress, it is necessary to capture a clear picture of the fixed/Portable WiMAX and mobile WiMAX market in China and understand the key issues for development of the market.
After careful study, it is thought telecom operators will play very important roles and their main concerns are far beyond technical regime. In the report the advantages of WiMAX Applications are also analyzed from financial points of view.
Two-sided Wimax Forecast from In-Stat
December 23, 2005
There are so many competing wireless technologies and uncertainties surrounding WiMax that high-tech market research firm In-Stat issued two different WiMax chipset forecasts in its annual WiMax report last week.
If the market variables fall in WiMax's favor, In-Stat projects the market to reach as high as $950 million by 2009. If the variables tumble the other way, the researcher offers a more conservative 2009 market estimate of $450 million.
The figures in the company's report, "WiMax: Wireless Super-Chips," include all flavors of the technology: fixed (802.16-2004) and mobile (802.16e and WiBro, the Korean version of 802.16e).
In-Stat's predictions might seem like a cop-out, but they could also be viewed as an attempt to be realistic, enabling takers to bet based on how circumstances develop. In the wake of the IEEE's approval this month of the 802.16e standard (now formally known as 802.16e-2005), for example, the question looms large whether mobile WiMax will prove a worthy opponent against established cellular technologies. Product interoperability and certification testing of 802.16e-2005 is to start next quarter.
Similarly, three Korean telecom providers are supposed to begin offering WiBro-based mobile services during the second half of next year, but it is not yet clear whether they are on schedule.
Meanwhile, although the WiMax industry has been hyping fixed WiMax technology for years and the WiMax Forum opened its certification lab in July, we haven't heard of any WiMax Forum-certified products yet (and some have argued that this phase of certification is not worth their while). Certified products are expected from the more enthusiastic vendors by year-end, but that milestone is fast approaching.
Without certified products and services based on them, it's tough to predict how the services